On the surface, Thursday’s earthquake in southern Japan seemed relatively minor. The magnitude 7.1 tremor caused minimal damage, and the initial tsunami warning was quickly downgraded. However, this event was followed by an unprecedented announcement from Japan’s meteorological agency: there is now an increased risk of a “major earthquake.” In response, Japan’s prime minister canceled a planned trip to a summit in Central Asia, opting to stay in the country for the coming week.
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For many Japanese citizens, this alert immediately triggered fears of the “big one”—a catastrophic earthquake that has been anticipated for generations. Worst-case scenarios predict over 300,000 fatalities, with a tsunami potentially reaching 30 meters (100 feet) in height along Japan’s Pacific coast.
Despite these ominous warnings, many, like Masayo Oshio from Yokohama, are left feeling more confused than alarmed. “I am baffled by the advisory and don’t know what to make of it,” she told the BBC. “We’ve been told for so long that the big one is coming one day, but this doesn’t feel real to me. Is this it?”
Japan is no stranger to earthquakes, as it sits on the seismically active Ring of Fire, experiencing around 1,500 tremors annually. While most cause little harm, some, like the 2011 magnitude 9.0 earthquake and subsequent tsunami that devastated the northeast coast, have had catastrophic impacts, resulting in over 18,000 deaths.
The real concern, however, lies with the potential for a massive earthquake in Japan’s more densely populated southern region. The Nankai Trough, a seismic hotspot along Japan’s Pacific coast, has been the source of several deadly quakes in the past. In 1707, a rupture along its entire 600km length caused the second-largest earthquake ever recorded in Japan, which was followed by the eruption of Mount Fuji.
These “megathrust” earthquakes typically occur every century, often in pairs. The last ones struck in 1944 and 1946. Experts now estimate a 70% to 80% chance of a magnitude 8 or 9 quake occurring along the Nankai Trough within the next 30 years. Such an event could cause trillions of dollars in damage and potentially result in hundreds of thousands of deaths.
This long-anticipated disaster, according to geologists Kyle Bradley and Judith A. Hubbard, is “the original definition of the ‘Big One.'”
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Adapted from BBC